Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 18.257617 20.817745 23.576908 26.767833 30.352516 34.251213 38.808593
2025-01-05 14.896968 18.459991 22.594844 27.732175 33.927172 41.139029 50.152468
2025-01-12 12.641693 16.534166 21.271979 27.434231 35.205497 44.645765 56.944194
2025-01-19 10.445232 14.352212 19.318504 26.050631 34.888313 46.038519 61.107559
2025-01-26 9.533567 13.652898 19.082308 26.699246 37.035056 50.486641 69.217965
2025-02-02 8.806299 13.096086 18.939301 27.394939 39.215176 55.031449 77.649499
2025-02-09 7.925823 12.217581 18.248858 27.235912 40.154879 57.895455 83.901533
2025-02-16 7.111758 11.343622 17.469396 26.852959 40.700460 60.182782 89.408499
2025-02-23 6.549545 10.783275 17.081874 26.978828 41.939496 63.459075 96.425458
2025-03-02 6.103931 10.354888 16.844248 27.287128 43.431554 67.136901 104.165005
2025-03-09 5.651903 9.871058 16.474818 27.349426 44.528337 70.255195 111.194595
2025-03-16 5.177000 9.304469 15.925228 27.076388 45.066992 72.530710 117.027577
2025-03-23 4.837936 8.943884 15.690754 27.307687 46.438281 76.190894 125.243689
2025-03-30 4.653069 8.831634 15.853567 28.193954 48.904991 81.672609 136.568115
2025-04-06 4.278152 8.348170 15.350591 27.922764 49.443988 84.105359 143.144751
2025-04-13 3.750965 7.540302 14.226072 26.506571 47.974406 83.207836 144.281641
2025-04-20 3.602990 7.421585 14.299168 27.168958 50.053793 88.190605 155.238550
2025-04-27 3.471887 7.322466 14.397084 27.874783 52.236344 93.432199 166.843802
2025-05-04 3.229433 6.984657 14.031560 27.713560 52.875888 96.086351 174.189456
2025-05-11 2.978365 6.606808 13.561876 27.324300 53.074932 97.978308 180.293212
2025-05-18 2.812662 6.387872 13.377179 27.452242 54.210080 101.531742 189.408649
2025-05-25 2.681069 6.228198 13.294619 27.765508 55.695702 105.756088 199.865227
2025-06-01 2.531010 6.015813 13.091677 27.828816 56.709305 109.172201 209.014996